26 September 2009
Technical Analysis of Sea Level Rise
If you are technically inclined click here for an interesting paper by L. David Roper, professor Emeritus of Physics at Virginia Tech. Here he takes a relatively calm approach to the prediction of sea level rise as a product of temperature change.
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Of course the big question is whehter this sort of linearity will hold up over time....my bet is that it doesn't.
ReplyDeleteIn a rather obscure discussion at Real Climate http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/08/ups-and-downs-of-sea-level-projections/#more-969
they offer what I'd call the understatement of the century: "...And there are arguments (e.g. by Jim Hansen) that over time the ice loss may be faster than the linear approach suggests, once the ice gets wet and soft and starts sliding. So ultimately we do not know how much longer the system will behave in an approximately linear fashion..."
If the Pine Island glacier melt acceleration is any signal we are about to break out of linearity big time....
http://climateprogress.org/2009/08/13/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-pine-island-glacier-thinning-faster-sea-level-rise/